In 2020, President Donald Trump lost his reelection bid to current President Joe Biden by a 51.3% to 46.9% margin in the national popular vote. Turnout four years ago was a modern high, with 63.2% of eligible voters participating in the election, according to the UC Santa Barbara American Presidency Project. This represented 60.8% of the voting-age population, which was the highest participation rate since 1968. The Election Lab at the University of Florida estimated that the turnout was closer to 66.8% which, according to their numbers, was the highest since 1900. In contrast, the Election Lab estimates that the turnout rate for the 2024 election is estimated to be approximately  63.9%.  

Regardless of the exact percentage, Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 voter count will be around 6 million voters less than what Biden received in 2020. Four years ago, Biden garnered over 81 million votes while a little over 74 million votes were cast for Trump. Trump’s voter base in 2024 increased by approximately 3 million compared to his 2020 numbers, while Harris is likely to receive about 6 million fewer votes than Biden did. Not only did Trump win the electoral college in 2024, but he won the popular vote, winning just shy of 50% of voters.

Voting Patterns

While we are still waiting for the results to be certified and official breakdowns of the vote by the method people used to cast their ballots (e.g., in person or by mail), the results from our national panels show a huge difference in behavior by the supporters of the two candidates (Figure 1). Among early voters, Harris won by a 56.1 to 38.6 percentage point margin according to our panelists. The strong showing for Harris was especially acute in those who voted early by mail (or drop box) where she had a 30-point advantage over Trump. Among early voters who voted in person, Trump had roughly a 20-point advantage.

On November 5th, Trump won 59.6% of our panelists who voted, while Harris received the support of 34.3%. Interestingly, regardless of the method of voting, 2% reported that they left the presidential portion of the ballot blank. 

When voters made up their minds also painted a very interesting picture. This question is clearly self-reported, and oftentimes people are not overly accurate when it comes to self-reported behavior. That being said, the race was always close among voters who said they made up their minds more than three months before the election (Figure 2).

Here at Trendency, we look at how voter opinions shifted this past election and how specific issues may have impacted the way they voted. Harris had a slight advantage among our panelists who said they made up their minds during the summer or earlier going back to when she became the likely nominee, but the lead was slim and these voters did not shift their opinions much, if at all. 

Harris’ strongest support came from those who reported that they made up their minds one to three months before the election (Figure 3). This cohort was always pre-disposed to support the Democratic nominee and supported her candidacy even in the hypothetical stages in July. This cohort of voters showed some volatility in their support for the two candidates, but not much over the end of the summer and through the fall.

Trump’s strongest support came from those who said they made up their minds in the last week (Figure 4). However, the chart clearly shows that this cohort was always strongly supportive of Trump, and while their support showed some volatility, it never came close to the support for Harris. In fact, this cohort was Trump’s strongest group of supporters going back to July.

As a reminder, Trendency does not ask questions in a binary fashion (“Are you voting for Harris or Trump?”). Instead, we ask panelists to allocate points to each candidate indicating the chance they would vote for one or the other. This allows panelists to give more nuance in their responses, allowing us to understand how opinions are shifting, not just on either candidate, but on each candidate themself. Unlike other polls, this method gives us an insight into voter confidence which can help us estimate future behavior.

Using the breakdown of the support allocated among those who said they made up their minds in the last week, we can see that there were very few voters allocating support at levels lower than 80% for either candidate. Among Harris supporters, by Labor Day, there was about one (1) percent of voters who said there was anything under an 80% chance of voting for Harris or higher than a 20% chance (Figure 5). 

For Trump, the pattern was similar (Figure 6). Close to 99% of voters who reported making up their minds in the last week were either strongly behind Trump or strongly opposed to his candidacy.

This is not to say that voters are lying in the traditional sense. Instead, we feel strongly that people tend to report what they believe is the truth, or at least what they want the truth to be. People like to purport that they are open-minded and can change their minds. However, the data often shows that, at least in the political realm, there are very few people who move from one candidate to another or truly change their minds once they’ve made their initial decision.

Demographics

A lot of the post-election discussion has been around different demographic groups and movements from 2020 to 2024. As mentioned above, there is likely just as much to learn about those who didn’t vote, but we will need to wait for the results to be finalized and the voter files to be updated before the non-voting cohort can be examined. 

Looking at the panelists who said they voted, the average allocation nationally for each presidential candidate shows African American voters, voters above the age of 65, and Asian voters were among the top supporters for Harris (Figure 7). The top groups supporting Trump were voters between the ages of 55-64, male voters, and White voters.

Across the board, average support for Harris as the Democratic presidential candidate decreased compared to the average support Biden had in 2020 (Figure 8). The largest decreases in support came from African American voters and voters under the age of 35. The only group to increase their average support for the Democratic presidential candidate in 2024 were voters over the age of 55.

Despite the negative shift in average support in comparison to 2024, support for Harris as the Democratic presidential candidate increased when compared to average support for Biden before dropping out of the race (Figure 9). The two groups with the largest increase in support were Hispanic and Asian voters.

Switching to the other side of the aisle, overall average Trump support increased slightly in 2024 compared to 2020 (FIgure 10). The only groups to experience a decrease in average support for Trump were Republican voters, voters above the age of 65, and Hispanic voters. The groups that experienced the largest increases in support for Trump were African American voters and voters below the age of 35.

Overall average support for Trump slightly increased after Biden dropped out of the race (Figure 11). The largest shift was a decrease in average support from Hispanic voters.

Average support levels for Harris didn’t reach the same level as average support for Biden in 2020 but voters did see Harris as an improvement as the Democratic presidential candidate compared to Biden. Overall average support for Trump didn’t change much, but there were several small demographic shifts in his fanbase. One notable shift was the increase in Trump support among younger voters.

Shifts Among Voters Under the Age of 30

One of the most interesting shifts, in our opinion, was among younger voters. While the stereotype is that younger voters tend to be more liberal, that was not the case this year. While the overall allocation among voters under 30 was slightly in favor of Harris, men and White voters in this age group both favored Trump (Figure 12). Hispanic voters and women supported Harris by relatively high margins while younger African American voters only gave Harris a three-point advantage.

Compared to the average allocation of voters under 30 in 2020, the overall average allocation for the Democratic candidate decreased by 26 points in 2024 (Figure 13). Hispanic voters, the group that allocated the most on average to Harris’ candidacy, decreased by 38 points. African American voter allocation decreased by 37 points and the allocation among men decreased by 32 points.

Support among Hispanic voters under 30 increased the most when Biden dropped out and Harris took over the race. In contrast, support levels for both male and White voters under 30 decreased (Figure 14).

The overall average allocation for Trump among voters under 30 increased significantly since 2020. The largest increase came from African American voters (Figure 15).

Overall support levels for Trump among voters under 30 increased after Biden dropped out of the presidential race in July (Figure 16). The largest increases in support came from men and Hispanic voters, while the only demographic to decrease support for Trump was women voters.

Looking at the distribution of support for the Democratic candidates in 2024, most voters under the age of 30 were against supporting a Democratic candidate in general, and this only worsened when Harris became the nominee (Figure 17). Strong support for the Democratic candidate decreased slightly when Biden dropped out of the race. At the beginning of the year, the majority of younger voters opposed Biden’s candidacy, but that number dropped below 50% when Harris took over the race. The Democratic presidential candidate switch-up caused a large percentage of voters under 30 to become less confident in their pick of presidential candidates.

For Trump, the percentage of strong support was the same as it was for Harris among voters under 30, but it increased by 5% after Biden dropped out (Figure 18). Similarly, the percentage of voters who allocated less than 20 points towards supporting Trump decreased by 6% after Biden dropped out.

These results make two things very clear about voters under 30. First, only a quarter of voters for each candidate allocated 80 points or more to supporting each candidate’s candidacy, meaning that young voters weren’t very motivated to vote for either candidate. Second, strong support for Trump increased among voters under 30 when Biden dropped out.

This is the first installment of Trendency’s latest studies diving into what happened in this year’s Presidential race. Next time, we’ll be diving into the issues and how the vote broke down based on the specific issues motivating voters to turn out.