As has been well documented, Americans, and Congress have become more polarized and self-selecting in who they spend time with and live near, choosing to live in proximity to people with similar political views as themselves. However, studies show that while politicians have become more ideologically polarized, Americans themselves are more “emotionally polarized,” where there is actually policy overlap but a dislike for the other side. Our recent look at this topic among our national panel of American adults agrees with these studies and shows that Americans are more likely to now see supporters of the other political party as “unreasonable people” who just “want to control how people live their lives” rather than as people with a differing viewpoint.

Not surprisingly this leads to many consequences when it comes to the outcome of the November election. As we saw on January 6, 2021 we are no longer living in a time where the peaceful transfer of power is the norm. While we unfortunately do not have decades worth of data of our own to compare to, the previous studies show that the idea of horrific consequences for the country is a relatively new phenomenon. Animosity towards people of different political views is not new, but acting on those beliefs tended to be more regional and local than national throughout most of the 1900’s. As we move deeper into the 21st century the outlook is certainly more turbulent and Americans have an expectation that the period after this November’s election is not likely to be one of peace and tranquility. Our results indicate that Americans now explicitly predict violence, to varying degrees, following the 2024 presidential election.

“Those People”

When it comes to those that are voting for a different candidate, on average, Americans think a majority of the supporters of the other presidential candidate are “unreasonable people who want to control how we live our lives.” By contrast, Americans, on average, say that, 46.6 percent of the other candidate’s supporters are “people who just have a different viewpoint than I do”. For this question, our panelists were asked to indicate what percentage of the other candidate’s voters were in each category with the two responses adding up to 100%.

This trend is led largely by Boomers, although all but one generation tends to view the other side as unreasonable people who want to control their lives. Millennials are most likely to see the other side in a more positive light. Millennials, on average, say 52.1% of the other side’s voters are just people who have a different viewpoint, the highest of any demographic. Regardless of who they supported in 2020, Millennials think most of the other candidate’s supporters just have a different viewpoint. That is not to say everything is copacetic in Millennials’ perspective, they still think 47.9% of the other side’s supporters are unreasonable people.

On the positive side, if we look at the distribution of responses, only 7% of Americans view 100 percent of supporters of the other party as unreasonable people (although 23% view 75% or more of the supporters as unreasonable people). The smallest concentration, sadly, is the view that 25% or less of the other party’s supporters are unreasonable people who want to control our lives.

Overall, 39% of Americans feel that a majority of the other party’s supporters are unreasonable people. Just under 1 in 3 (30%) feel that this describes half of the supporters of the other party, while 31% feel it is less than half. This negative view is led largely by Americans in the Boomer Generation. Fifty-three (53) percent of Boomers say that a majority of the other side’s supporters are unreasonable people who want to control our lives, compared to a third of GenZ Americans, a quarter of Millennials, and 40% of GenXers who feel this way.

Overall, supporters of former President Trump are more likely to think that Biden voters are unreasonable people than the reverse (a 6 point difference), but among Boomers, partisanship has little effect.

Millennials, on the other hand, are most likely to see the other side as people who have a different viewpoint. Indeed, Millennials, on average, say 52.1% of the other side’s voters are just people who have a different viewpoint, the highest of any demographic. Regardless of who they supported in 2020, Millennials think most of the other candidate’s supporters just have a different viewpoint. That is not to say everything is copacetic in Millennials’ perspective, they still think 47.9% of the other side’s supporters are unreasonable people.

Turning the opposition into the enemy is not a new playbook, and it has certainly been a staple of our political narrative for a while. Unfortunately, as we saw on January 6, 2021, these views can have deadly consequences. Americans are well aware of this, and it is not surprising to see that a majority of Americans are excepting some level of violence after the November elections. Not surprisingly, voters who think more of the other side’s supporters are unreasonable people who want to control our lives are also more likely to expect violent protests if there is a close election.

Violence Post November

Earlier this year, we asked our national panel about five possible scenarios for the outcome of the 2024 election. Scenario 1: Joe Biden wins the popular vote by 8 million votes or more, and wins the Electoral College by a similar margin to the 2020 election (basically the same result as the last presidential election). Scenario 2: Joe Biden wins the popular vote by 8 million votes or more, and wins the Electoral College by one closely contested state where claims of voter fraud and not counting ballots are common. Scenario 3: Donald Trump loses the popular vote by 8 million votes or more, and wins the Electoral College by one closely contested state where claims of voter fraud and not counting ballots are common. Scenario 4: Donald Trump loses the popular vote by 8 million votes or more, and wins the Electoral College by multiple states where claims of voter fraud and not counting ballots are common. And finally, Scenario 5: Donald Trump wins the popular vote, and wins the Electoral College by multiple states.

For each scenario, we asked voters what they felt was the most likely outcome: That A) there will be acceptance of the results and no violent acts by supporters of the loser, B) there will be some violent protests, but not as serious as we saw on January 6, 2021, or C) there will be violent protests and a similar reaction to the 2020 elections from the supporters of the loser or worse.

In the scenarios where Joe Biden wins, two in five voters expect violent protests and a similar reaction to 2020 or more violence, regardless of how close the election is. However, in the scenarios where Donald Trump wins, regardless of how close, fewer voters expect a violent reaction from Biden supporters (although at least a third do expect violence).

Expectations for violence among each candidate’s supporters are largely driven by their voters who see the other side as unreasonable people looking to control how we live our lives while voters who think the other side just has a different viewpoint are more likely to predict the loser’s supporters will accept the results and there will be no violent acts.

In the first scenario, where Biden wins the popular vote by 8 million votes or more, and wins the Electoral College by a similar margin to the 2020 election, 39% of Biden voters who think the other side just has a different viewpoint, predict an acceptance of the results and no violent acts by supporters of Donald Trump compared to just 9% of voters who see the majority of Trump supporters as unreasonable people. There is also a 20 point difference when it comes to those who feel it will be January 6th again, or worse. A third of Biden supporters who view a majority of Trump voters as people who just have a differing opinion feel there would be January 6th level violence in the scenario, while 53% of Biden voters who view a majority of Trump voters as unreasonable predict the same outcome.

Similarly, in the second scenario where Biden wins the popular vote by 8 million vote or more but just wins the Electoral College by one state that is closely contested where there are claims of voter fraud, just 8% of Biden voters who see the other side as unreasonable people predict an acceptance of the results by supporters of Donald Trump while 62% predict violence that we saw on January 6^th or worse. Interestingly, in both scenarios there is little difference in the predictions of Trump voters based on how they view the other side. In each scenario, around a third of Trump voters, regardless of how they view the other side, predict an acceptance of results.

Similar to Biden voters, Trump voters who see the other side as unreasonable people are less likely to predict an acceptance of results among Biden voters if Trump wins, however, not to the extent of Biden voters. If Trump were to lose the popular vote but win the Electoral College by just one closely contested state where claims of voter fraud are common, nearly three in ten Trump voters who see the other side as people who have a different viewpoint predict an acceptance of the results by Biden voters compared to just 15% of Trump voters who see the other side as unreasonable people. Interestingly, in this scenario, 19% of Biden voters who see the other side as unreasonable people predict even more violence than we saw on January 6^th , the same number as Trump voters who see the other side as unreasonable people (29% of Biden voters who see the other side as unreasonable people predict an acceptance of the results, nearly twice as many as Trump voters).

In the fourth scenario where Trump loses the popular vote but wins the Electoral College by multiple states where claims of voter fraud are common, there is a slight increase among Trump voters who see the other side as unreasonable predicting Biden voters will accept the results. However, even a third of Trump voters who see the other side as just people with a different viewpoint are more likely to predict violent protests by Biden. This is much lower, however, than the 47% of Trump voters who view Biden supporters as unreasonable, that predict the same level of violence.

In the last scenario, where Trump wins the popular vote and wins the Electoral College by multiple states, a quarter of Trump voters who see the other side as unreasonable people predict an acceptance of results by Biden voters compared to 46% of Trump voters who see the other side as just people with a different viewpoint. Trump and Biden voters who see the other side as unreasonable people have more in common than they think as 12% of Trump voters who see the other side as unreasonable and 14% of Biden voters who see the other side as unreasonable predict move violence than we saw on January 6^th even in this scenario.

Unfortunately, the more Americans view the other candidate’s supporters as bad people, the more likely they are to expect violence from them which is likely to only exacerbate the problem. However, studies show that we have more in common than we expect, but our perception of the other side is altered by the increasing partisanship of elected officials as well as what we see in the media (both traditional and social). Lets hope we can make it to 2025 without completely falling apart.