An Update on the War in Gaza

Since October 2023, Trendency has been tracking how closely Americans are following the conflict between Israel and Hamas, as well as how they view the actions of the parties involved. Since our last update in March, attention levels have not changed much, but opinions on the actions of Israel and Hamas have continued to shift since earlier this year. As has been the case through most of 2024, views continue to shift away from support for Israel’s actions, and there has been a small increase in those who believe that the Israeli government’s response to Hamas’ October 7th terror attack has gone too far. Opinions on which side is more to blame for the conflict have also experienced a small overall increase in blame towards Israel, but numbers vary greatly by generation.

ATTENTION

Shortly after the October 7th terror attack, 70% of Americans said that they were paying close attention to the conflict. However, this level of focus dropped relatively quickly, and, by March, just 52% of Americans reported that they were paying close attention. Last month, this level dropped slightly to 51%. At the same time, those saying that they are paying some attention also dropped from March to June.

As Trendency data has proven previously, generation has a fairly large effect on how you view the conflict, as well as how much attention you are paying to it, albeit to a lesser degree for the latter.

Right after the attack, about 7 in 10 of every American, regardless of generation, indicated that they were paying attention to the unfolding events. This level dropped for all generations over the next few months, but especially among Gen Z Americans. From October to March, Gen Z attention levels showed the most change, dropping from 64% paying close attention to just 38%. From March to June, however, Gen Z experienced the largest increase, with 54% reporting paying close attention in June. The Silent generation was the only other generation to increase attention from March to June but with just a 2% increase. The percentage of Millennials, Gen Xers, and Boomers paying close attention to the issue all dropped, but not by drastic amounts. It is now the youngest (Gen Z) and the two oldest (Silent and Boomer) generations who are paying the most attention to the conflict, while less than half of Millennials and Gen Xers report paying close attention to the matter.

Looking at attention levels by 2020 voting habits, all voting demographics have reported similar levels of attention in June as they did in March, with June numbers reflecting a 14-20% decrease from what they originally were in October 2023. While 2020 Trump voters had numbers in June that were nearly identical to what was reported back in March 2020 Biden voters continue to pay the most attention to the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, and these voters, along with third-party voters and non-voters, have all increased attention levels as the conflict continues and the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches.

ISREAL’S ACTIONS

Regarding the Israeli government’s actions in response to Hamas’ attack, Americans increasingly believe that the Israeli government has gone too far. The numbers have almost swapped since October, with Americans feeling that 53.4% of Israel’s actions have gone too far and 46.6% are reasonable in June.

Since October, Gen Z Americans have continually been the most likely to say that Israel’s actions have gone too far, with each generation above them becoming less likely to feel this way. Most generations’ views have held relatively steady since March, except for the Greatest/Silent generations, which experienced a large movement away from support for Israel’s actions. In March, these two generations believed, on average, that 30.7% of Israel’s actions had gone too far; in June, that number jumped to 43.5% -- almost a 13-point increase. That 43.5%, however, is still the smallest percentage compared to younger generations.

Opinions have also continued to shift on pinpointing the cause of the situation in Gaza and which side is the most to blame. While the majority of Americans still blame Hamas for the situation, more Americans beginning to believe more and more that the Israeli government is to blame as well. In March, Americans placed 60.4% of the blame on Hamas, while Israel was viewed as just under 40% responsible. Last month, the blame for Hamas decreased slightly to 58.9% while blame for Israel increased by the same amount.

Breaking down which side shares the blame by generation, the Trendency data finds that, overall, the most polarized views (placing 100% blame on one side or the other) have remained relatively steady over the past three months. The one exception is Gen Z, who went from 7% feeling that Israel was 100% to blame to 12%. Almost all of the movement in this generation moved from viewing both sides sharing an equal amount of blame to placing most of the blame on Israel. Indeed, the percentage that views Israel as having 80% or more of the blame went from 14% to 28%. A similar percentage of Gen Z Americans place a high level of blame on Hamas, similar to how they felt in March, but the possibility of blaming both sides 50/50 decreased by 11 points.

For Millennials, high levels of blame for either side have decreased. Gen X has slightly moved towards blaming Israel more than Hamas, but the numbers of those blaming either side 100% have not changed since March.

Views held by Boomers have moved similarly to those of Gen X, with a slightly increased level of blame on the Israeli government and a slightly decreased level of blame on Hamas. The Greatest/Silent generations have made a shift similar to Gen Z but in the opposite direction. High levels of blame for Hamas have increased by 13 points, with high levels of blame for Israel decreasing by 5 points. Out of all the generations, they have clearly placed the highest amount of blame on Hamas and the lowest amount on Israel. Although the level of 50/50 blame has decreased within the Greatest and Silent generations, so have the numbers of those placing 100% of the blame on either side.

Interestingly, the Greatest and Silent generations had the most significant increase since March in the belief that Israel’s actions have gone too far, yet also had the greatest increase in those heavily blaming Hamas for the situation.

Looking at the same question through a partisan lens, although opinion overall has stayed similar to what it was in March, there is a significant difference between 2020 Biden voters and 2020 Trump voters. Biden voters blame Hamas more than they do the Israeli government, but not at the same level that Trump voters do. Biden voters place more blame on Israel, but both sets of voters have similar numbers for blaming both sides equally. The biggest difference is that 9% of Biden voters feel that Hamas is 100% to blame, while 23% of Trump voters feel that way. Biden 2020 voters are more likely to place moderate blame on either side than Trump 2020 voters are.

As the conflict continues to play out, opinions should be expected to continue to shift. The upcoming presidential elections will also likely affect attention levels.