A New Dawn for Democrats?

The last few weeks have been some of the most tumultuous weeks the American political landscape has experienced in years (maybe even decades). From the debate heard around the world, to an attempted assassination attempt on a former President, to the current President announcing he will, in fact, not be running for a second term, it’s been a busy few weeks, and this writer certainly feels they’ve aged 5-10 years over the span of 3-4 days.

Most Americans who are alive today haven’t experienced a sitting president stepping aside from running for a second term, but it has happened before. The most recent example is Lyndon B. Johnson, who announced via television that he wasn’t running for reelection in 1968 (there are lessons to be learned from that year alone, but that’s another story), along with Harry Truman, Calvin Coolidge, James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, and Theodore Roosevelt before him, all of whom also turned down a chance at another term they were eligible to run for. On top of that, this is now the first election since 1976 that a candidate on the ticket hasn’t had the last name Bush, Clinton, or Biden. All in a few days, one could argue this race just got really interesting.

While any Democrat, in theory, could throw their hat in the ring and argue that the delegates to the convention should support them, it feels that is a long shot at best. Yesterday, the campaign announced that Harris has the backing of a majority of delegates, and the campaign has raised over $80 million since Sunday. In addition, every serious candidate has stated that they are supporting Harris, and almost all party leaders of the Democratic Party have already endorsed her. So far, it seems that this change is opening the door to a new sense of excitement and urgency for the Democratic Party. But is Harris capable - according to the data - of holding that torch and carrying the Democrats through November?

Comparing the Numbers for Biden and Harris

There is still a lot up in the air when it comes to the Democratic ticket, with ballot deadlines approaching, a new Vice Presidential pick yet to be named, and the Democratic National Convention still a few weeks away, but so far the numbers are showing a bump in support for Harris across the board. Following the trendlines we’ve been reporting on for the last few weeks, Biden’s average support among voters in Trendency’s national panel was beginning to dip again. Keep in mind, Trendency does not ask this question as an either-or choice but allows its respondents to allocate their support between the different options. This allows us to get a better understanding of how people are feeling about the question, and also get a better sense of movement.

Since the debate in late June, Biden’s support had mostly been on a downward trajectory. There was a slight bump up around the time of the assassination attempt, but then the numbers continued in a negative direction. Declining support on the Democratic side changed on Sunday when Biden announced he was stepping aside for a chance at a second term, instead endorsing his Vice President as the next Democratic candidate. Including Harris’ average support starting on July 21 shows a 6-point bump in support for the Democratic candidate putting her in the lead nationally against Trump.

Taking Biden completely out of the question and focusing on the horse race between Harris and Trump, which Trendency has been tracking since early July, we recorded a bump in support for Harris immediately after the announcement of Biden stepping aside followed by a small increase over the next 24 hours. This increase in support corresponds with a decrease in support for both RFK, Jr. and the nameless “other candidate” option. In theory, this means Biden’s announcement to step aside is not only energizing Democrats, but it’s also positive news for voters on the outer fringes, those who represent what’s left of America’s moveable “middle.” It is worth noting that Trump’s support has only decreased slightly since the announcement.

We cannot stress this enough: there has been a ton of volatility in this race ever since the debate, although maybe this all really began with Trump’s felony convictions back in May. Either way, it’s been really easy to see how each event that’s happened since then has affected the data. What we also can’t stress enough is that this bump in support for Harris is significant, and it’s rare that a candidate moves this quickly. Of course, this is all unchartered territory, so there really isn’t a past example we can use to compare findings.

This is still a close race, but Republicans have to completely change their campaign strategy now; after spending months and millions on saying Biden is too old and not mentally fit to run for office again, they now have to pivot to focus on not having the same arguments spun around on them amidst excitement surrounding a new, younger Democratic candidate.

On top of that, breaking down the average allocations by major demographic groups shows Harris leading with every demographic group except men, Independents, and Republicans, albeit by small margins. Every single age group (under 45, 45-64, and 65+) allocates more points on average towards saying they are going to vote for Harris than they do for Trump, with the biggest divide (in her favor) happening among the youngest age cohort. Women rate their support for Harris 8 points higher than their average support for Trump, while men allocate 2 points more on average towards saying they’ll vote for Trump over Harris.

On top of the difference in average allocations, enthusiasm levels are competitive for Harris vs. Trump, with a slight edge for Harris. One-third of the Vice President’s support (32%) currently consists of voters who allocate all 100 of their points towards saying they’ll vote for her, compared to 28% of voters who say the same for Trump. Harris also has fewer voters indicating that there is zero chance they would vote for her (48%) compared to Trump (54%), which marks the first time since Trendency was created that a candidate for President has a majority of voters saying there is a non-zero chance that they will vote for them. Regardless, in order to be successful, Harris will need to solidify this enthusiasm - something Trump has done with ease for nearly a decade - and recognize that this is going to be a close race no matter what, with only about 1 in 10 voters somewhere in the middle of the scale (20-79 points).

Battleground States

While we are just 48 hours into a new campaign dynamic, the national numbers are looking positive for Harris so far. However, we do not elect presidents through a national vote. It’s still very early in the process of collecting the data but, so far, the movement in a couple of the key swing states we have been tracking is showing improvement for the Democrats with Trump still in the lead.

Arizona

In the Trendency numbers so far, Trump has been enjoying a sizable lead in Arizona against Harris since the debate (in the previously hypothetical matchup). Immediately following the President’s announcement and subsequent endorsement, support for Harris jumped nearly eight (8) points for the average Arizona voter. Rumor has it that US Senator Mark Kelly is on her shortlist for VP nominations, and that choice may help improve her numbers in the southwest region of the country and capitalize on this upward momentum. As with the national numbers, there has been very little away from Trump, and almost all of the improvement coming from support for RFK, Jr. or “Other.”

Michigan

Michigan has had a more purple experience during this election cycle compared to Arizona, certainly, at least when Biden was still on the ticket. Early data in the Harris vs. Trump matchup shows Trump enjoying a much bigger lead; however, just like in Arizona, Harris has had an immediate spike - by about six (6) points in this case - after Biden announced he was stepping aside.

Ohio

While Trump is currently leading Harris in both Arizona and Michigan, another battleground state shows a higher level of support for the Vice President than the former President: Ohio. As stated before, we are just 48 hours past Biden’s announcement, and there will likely be a lot of volatility over the next few weeks. But, with that being said, Trump’s support had been slipping through the middle of July. After Sunday’s news, Ohio’s trendlines mirror the national trendline in that it experienced a complete flip. Harris now leads Trump by about three (3) points on average, whereas Biden struggled consistently to gain an edge on the Republican nominee.

In Conclusion

The data is certainly pointing to a new race, and it is very early in this new phase. Our team will continue to track this data nationally and in key battleground states through the election, with the ability to weigh in on other events as they happen. It’s going to be a wild next few months for American politics, but we are here to hopefully help you enjoy (or at least understand) the ride a little more.