Post Weekend Update

In what’s probably the strangest presidential race in modern United States history, President Joe Biden is yet again in the lead against former President Donald Trump following an assassination attempt on Trump this past Saturday. Biden now leads by one (1) point, up two (2) points since last week. While both candidates conveyed rare messages of unity after a 20-year-old man who was registered as a Republican but may have donated to a Democratic-leaning group fired shots at the former president, initial polling results indicate that Saturday’s events and any rhetoric that followed afterward have had an impact on the race

Biden’s debate stumble last month certainly led to decreased support and, while it caused Trump to overtake him in our national panel of registered voters, Biden never dipped below his opponent among likely voters. After Saturday’s assassination attempt, likely voters increased their support for Trump by an average of one (1) point,  although they still favor Biden (43 points) over Trump (42 points).

Republicans continue to feel a stronger loyalty for their party’s nominee than Democrats feel for theirs. Before the first presidential debate, both candidates enjoyed strong support from their respective parties, hovering at around 80 points out of 100 each. Now, Biden receives an average of 75 out of 100 from Democrats, while Trump still receives 80 points out of 100 from Republicans. Notably, Biden saw slightly increased support from his party after Saturday. In contrast, Trump saw relatively no change in support from his party after a bullet clipped his ear at a campaign rally and one spectator was killed. As for Independents, the assassination attempt did little to change their minds on the upcoming election.

By tracking the opinions of the same voters since before 2020, Trendency can see how 2020 supporters of either candidate are responding to major events in the 2024 campaign. Notably, 2020 Trump voters say they will still support Trump, with an average of 89 points out of 100, and this support experienced a slight uptick following the assassination attempt against him, but not as much as the uptick Biden saw among his previous supporters. Those who voted for Biden in 2020 increased their support for him by an average of three (3) points since Saturday’s events and Biden’s subsequent message of unity and depolarization. Even still, Biden's 2020 voters support him with an average of 81 points out of 100 – eight (8) points lower than the dedication that Trump sees from his voters. As for opinions among all Trendency panelists who have been with us since the last election, Trump is winning by an average of two (2) points.

Arizona

In Arizona, Trump has been ahead of Biden for a majority of the past 8 weeks, and Saturday’s events have bolstered this support. Unlike voters nationwide, Arizona voters have increased their support for Trump by one (1) point since the assassination attempt against him. As for Biden, support has not changed noticeably. In this critical state, Trump leads Biden by an average of two (2) points (44 to 42).

Likely voters in Arizona have increased their support for Trump even more – by two (2) points – since the assassination attempt. Meanwhile, Biden has seen no change in support among Arizona’s likely voters, now trailing Trump by an average of 7 points.

Michigan

In Michigan, Trump is ahead by one (1) point against Biden, with neither candidate experiencing a noticeable change since Saturday. Support for Biden decreased from around 49 points to 41 points in the week following the debate, dipping below Trump’s support level in the key 2024 state, and has not recovered since.

On the other hand, likely voters in Michigan still support Biden over Trump (47 vs. 41), without changing their views much since the assassination attempt over the weekend. Michigan and Arizona are two key battleground states in the upcoming election, and the major-party candidates experience equal but opposite issues in both states.

A lot has happened since Saturday’s rally in Butler, Pennsylvania - including the kickoff of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where Trump announced his Vice Presidential pick is Ohio Senator J.D. Vance. It is too early to see any effects of this pick or any of the other events or rhetoric emerging from the RNC, but Trendency will certainly keep an eye on the data.