Post-Conviction Convictions: Mixed Opinions in Arizona and Michigan

National news sources were swift in suggesting that former President Donald Trump’s 34-count felony conviction on Thursday, May 30^th resulted in a boost in polling numbers for President Joe Biden; however, knowing how nuanced the correlation between perspectives on the verdict and presidential voting behavior might be (yes, more in the gray area than you think), the team at Trendency took a close look at how opinions have really changed since the monumental criminal conviction of a former United States President.

In his third race for the White House, Trump actually managed to increase his support nationally following his conviction. However, it’s still to be determined if that increase will make a difference: as of a few days ago, his conviction only resulted in a 2-point bump on average. When asked to assign the change they will vote for each candidate (Biden, Trump, Robert F Kennedy, Jr., or another candidate), voters in our national panel give Biden the highest average ranking.

Despite the bump in our national numbers and the Trump campaign reporting that they raised over $50M following the news of the conviction, so far the effect in key swing states has not been as dramatic as one would expect. In Arizona, support for Biden increased by around 2 points on average immediately following the verdict, although it did come back down by about 1-point after a few days. While Trump did end up maintaining the advantage overall, he is no better off than he was pre-conviction. In fact, both candidates enjoyed increases in support over the past month, a sign that voters are beginning to solidify their support across the state either way, even if the presidential race in Arizona is no closer than it had been before.

Michigan is an entirely different story. Leading up to May 30^th, it appeared that Trump was regaining the lead he lost towards the beginning of the month. However, once the news broke, support for Biden jumped, flipping the race in Biden’s favor (at least for now). While it’s only a 3-point margin, it has stayed consistent throughout the beginning of June in the Wolverine State.

Demographic Changes

Demographic data plays a key role in revealing the voters whose opinions changed following news of the conviction, with younger voters and women driving the increase in support for Biden in both Arizona and Michigan.

In Arizona, women increased their support for Biden twice as much as they dropped their support for Trump on average (+6 points vs. -3 points), while men leaned towards supporting Trump more (+4) even though their support for Biden neither increased nor decreased. Younger voters in the Copper State hunkered down in their support of Biden, increasing their point allocations by 15 on average following the verdict, while voters over the age of 50 saw little to no movement. Party affiliation, of course, also plays a role; Democrats and Republicans increased support levels for their respective candidates after Trump’s conviction, while Independents aligned themselves more with Biden after Trump was found guilty.

While gender and party affiliation didn’t experience drastic changes in Michigan, similar patterns appeared by age. Younger voters dropped their support for Trump at a very similar rate to increased support for Biden (-7 points vs. +6 points), while voters over the age of 50 didn’t change their minds much following the verdict.

It’s important to point out that, even though the gap between Biden and Trump in Arizona narrowed after May 30^th, voters’ enthusiasm for Trump still increased. The percentage of voters who support Trump at a level of 80 points or more out of 100 increased by 4%, while the percentage of those who are more undecided on him (or, technically speaking, those answering between 40-59 points) decreased by the same amount. In other words, the conviction has evidently had an even more radicalizing effect on voters, pushing existing supporters to back Trump even more.

This pattern, however, was not the same in Michigan. Although the number of voters indecisive about Trump (40-59 points) decreased by 3% as well, it was mirrored by an increase in the percentage of voters who say they are very unlikely to support him in November (0-19 points). So, similar patterns occurred in both Arizona and Michigan, but had very different outcomes – Arizona Trump supporters felt galvanized by the conviction, while the verdict pushed more Trump supporters away in Michigan.

It's a long (checks calendar) four months until in-person voters head to the polls and make a final decision on this year’s presidential candidates, meaning a lot can happen between now and then. One thing is clear: voters are paying attention to events in the news, and these events may play an important role in a tight electoral race.