Thursday night last week President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump had their first debate of the 2024 Presidential election. Hosted by CNN in their studio and moderated by Jake Tapper and Dana Bash it was 90 minutes of (in our opinion) barely watchable TV. Each candidate had a specific job to do. For Biden it was to not come across as old, and for Trump it was to not come across as unhinged and/or untruthful. Both candidates failed to reach their goal, although Biden failed much more spectacularly. 

The news stories post-debate have focused almost exclusively on Biden’s performance, with some newspapers, such as the New York Times, calling for Biden to step down as a candidate. It does not seem that the campaign is entertaining this idea based on their reaction since last Thursday, and they are calling it an “off night”.

Ultimately it is less about what the pundits think should happen but rather how the voters are reacting to the debate and, more importantly, the news following the debate. Not surprisingly the numbers so far are not great for President Biden, although the voters who are reducing their support might be a little bit of a surprise. 

Nationally, our numbers have shown Biden with a consistent, albeit close, lead throughout 2024. As a reminder, our approach is different from traditional polling. We do not ask a binary question where our panelists have to pick just one candidate. Instead we ask them to indicate their chances of voting for each candidate. This allows for our respondents to provide more nuance to their answers, and also allows us to understand not just movement from one candidate to another, but in how the strength of support is shifting over time, or due to a specific event. 

The conviction of Trump on 34 counts in New York had very little effect on the overall state of the race, however Trump’s average support had been increasing from the verdict through the middle of June. Since then it has been relatively steady. For Biden there had also been a slight increase from the verdict to the middle of June, although not a consistent state of improvement. 

Leading up to the debate, Biden, nationally, had an average support of just under 43%, while Trump was a little bit over 39%. As of mid-day on Monday July 1st Biden’s average support dropped three points since the debate, while Trump’s support increased by roughly two (2) points. 

While there is very little positive news in these numbers for Biden, the only silver lining is which voters are moving so far. Republican voters have been strongly supporting Trump throughout, and increased their support for the former President from about 75% average support to 78% a week or so after the New York convictions. That support increased by a little less than a point since the debate and now stands at 79%. 

Among Democrats support for Biden had been relatively consistent over the past month around 78%. However his average support among Democrats dropped five (5) points since the debate. While losing support is never good news, these voters should arguably be easier for Biden to win back further down the line. 

Among Independent voters there was much less movement after the debate. Trump has enjoyed a narrow lead among independent voters over the past month with the two candidates running dead-even in the second week of June. Leading up to the debate Trump had expanded his lead to roughly three (3) points, which then expanded to five (5) points after the debate. This was almost exclusively movement away from Biden with very little moving toward Trump. 

Since averages can sometimes hide movement, we will always look at the distribution of the responses. When looking at the support scores for Biden pre-debate we found that 38% of voters nationwide were very certain in their support for the current President (those saying there is an 80% chance or more of voting for Biden), while 53% said there was less than a 20% chance of voting for him. The small 11% of voters who fell in between the bookends were almost evenly divided between those leaning towards support, leaning towards not supporting, and those in the middle. 

Post-debate, those indicating an 80-100% chance of voting for Biden dropped 4 points while those saying that there is very little chance that they will vote for him increased by 2 points. We also saw a slight shift in the middle categories moving in the negative direction for the sitting President. 

If we look just at likely voters, the news was still not good for President Biden, but it was slightly less bad. Throughout June, Biden held a comfortable lead and his numbers were relatively steady throughout the month. Former President Trump also received a bump in support after the convictions and had been holding steady since the middle of June. After the debate, Biden’s average support dropped about 2.5 points, while Trump’s support increased by just under a point. 

Last week we looked at 2020 Biden and Trump voters and how their support has shifted over the past four years. In general, we found that up to the middle/late part of June there was not much change in terms of which candidates these voters are planning on casting a ballot for in 2024, and most movement that was present was not movement between the two main candidates. Instead it was mostly movement to a 3rd party candidate or towards being a little more undecided. 

Similar to the movement within party identification, 2020 Biden voters dropped significantly post-debate. Before last Thursday, the average allocation among Biden’s supporters four years ago was a little over 85%, post-debate that number dropped to 79%. 

Trump’s support also increased among his 2020 voters but the movement was relatively minimal. Indeed, among Trump’s 2020 supporters his average support increased by just under one percentage point. Trump’s overall support among his past voters has always been more solid than Biden’s but the gap is now the biggest we have recorded since the last presidential election. 

Swing States

Since we do not elect our President through a national vote, it is always important to look at the states that will ultimately decide who will sit in the Oval Office starting next January. In Arizona and Michigan, we see movement away from Biden, but on two different paths. In Arizona, we have shown Trump’s support being affected in a positive direction after his convictions, however Biden’s support increased at an even faster pace in early June. Since then the numbers leveled out for both candidates with Trump holding a two to two and a half point lead in the middle and end of June. After the debate, both candidates lost support. 

Trump’s average support dropped a little less than half a point the day after the debate and then increased slightly over the weekend. Biden’s support dropped 1.5 points the first day, and then dropped another half a point over the weekend. Trump currently holds a four-point lead which is the largest since early June. 

Among likely voters in Arizona, the movement followed a very similar pattern although the end result was slightly worse for Biden than among voters as a whole. Before the debate, Trump held about a 3.5-point advantage while post-debate that has increased to a six-point advantage for Trump. 

In Michigan, we showed Biden with a comfortable lead and had come close to hitting the 50% average support level in early June post convictions. Trump’s support had initially dropped in the Great Lakes State and then slowly grew during the middle of the month, while Biden’s support moved in the opposite direction. Both candidates’ support levels held steady in the second half of the month until the debate when Biden’s support dropped nearly four points through the weekend, and Trump’s support increased by roughly the same number.

The averages don’t paint a great picture for President Biden in either state, and the breakdown of the responses makes it look even worse in at least one of these two swing states. In Arizona, 38% of voters said they were very likely to support Biden in the upcoming election pre-debate, while 54% said there was little to no chance that they would vote for him. Post-debate the all but certain voters dropped to 35% of registered voters, and interestingly the percentage of those who said there was little chance that they would vote for him also dropped by a little (from 54% to 53%).

In Michigan however the pattern was more in line with the averages as a whole with the percentage of voters pre-debate who said they were very likely to vote for Biden at 45% and then dropped to 39% post-debate. On the negative end of the spectrum the percent that said they would not vote for Biden started at 50% and then increased to 53%.

With the Biden campaign clearly indicating he is staying in the race, it will be interesting to watch how these numbers shift over the next week or so. Will this end up being a short-lived negative time period for the current President or will this be a longer-term downward trend?