Trendency's Political Trendwatch Newsletter

With the first two primary states in the books it seems incredibly likely that we are all looking at a rematch of the 2020 election at the Presidential level. As they say, anything can happen, but it is hard to imagine former Ambassador Nikki Haley becoming the GOP nominee. This outcome is not exactly shocking especially to Republican voters who for months have seen Trump as the odds on favorite to win.

Going with the assumption that Trump will win South Carolina, and Super Tuesday shortly after this contest should come to an end relatively quickly. It will be interesting to see what Haley does post concession. She is smart enough to know she will not be able to have strong support from the MAGA base, but will she make a full play to become the center-right frontrunner for 2028 or will she kiss the proverbial ring? Her actions will tell us a lot about where the more establishment Republicans view the future of the party.

With eyes moving to the General Election, recent polling has shown a close race nationally between Biden and Trump ranging from Biden +6 (Quinnipiac (1/25-29)) to Trump +5 (NBC News (1/26-30)). Overall of the surveys that came out last week, four had Trump up by 1 point, two had Trump up by 4-5 points, while one had Biden up by a point, and one had him up by 6 points. Real Clear Politics wrap up can be found here.

In Trendency’s national panel, we have been asking voters who they think will win in November. Currently voters feel that Trump has an average of a 56.3% chance of winning compared to Biden’s 43.7% chance. Overall, 2020 Trump voters are much more bullish on Trump’s chances (80.9% chance of winning) compared to 2020 Biden voters (67.3% chance for Biden winning).

But as we all know, the United States does not elect Presidents through a national election. In the states we are seeing some interesting movement over the first month of 2024.

There have only been two public surveys released this month, both show Trump with a sizable lead. Bloomberg/Moring Consult gave Trump a 5 point lead in their survey which ran 1/16-1/20. Detroit News had Trump up by 8 at the beginning of the month. Our numbers are not agreeing with this dynamic, although there is no expectation that Michigan will be a blowout in either direction.

Michigan Results

In the Great Lakes State, President Biden is holding a slight lead at the end of January in our Trendency panel. Overall, he has an average support of 44% to Trump’s 39%. As a quick reminder we do not ask this question in a binary fashion but allow voters to allocated their support between the two candidates, giving us a deeper understanding of their motivations and movements.

Democratic voters are showing stronger support for Biden (83% compared to 2% chance of voting for Trump, and 8% chance for voting for a 3rd party candidate on average). Republican voters are also not shifting in large numbers, however their support for Trump is lower with the average support ending up a 75% at the end of January, with Biden receiving a slightly higher allocation (11% than a 3rd party candidate (7%). Independent voters give Trump a slight advantage 39% vs 38%) with a 3rd party candidate at 20%.

Since the middle of 2023, Biden has been moving ever so slowly in a positive direction, and has maintained a lead on the former President since May of 2023 when Trump’s average allocation jumped higher for two days right after the announcement that Trump was liable for defaming writer, and he held his town hall meeting on CNN.

Overall, Biden is enjoying an advantage in those who are very certain who they will vote for (80% or higher) as well as among those who have almost ruled out voting for a that particular candidate (20% or lower). At the high end of the scale, 41% of voters in Michigan are in the 80% or higher for Biden, while 34% are in the same category for Trump. On the negative end of the scale 59% of voters in Michigan say there is a 20% or less chance they will vote for Trump compared to 50% who say the same about Biden.

Not shockingly, there are very few voters in the categories in-between the extremes.

Overall, there is a low level of volatility for both candidates. Among Biden supporters 7% of voters are showing volatility in their responses over the past month, while the concentration among Trump supporters is at 8%. The highest level of volatility is among supporters of 3rd Party candidates. Given that we are about 10 months out from the election, this high level of volatility for 3rd party candidates is expected and fairly consistent with the past few presidential elections.

Conclusion

Overall, Michigan is showing the most favorable landscape for Biden of the nine Swing States we are tracking. Given the historical support for Democratic presidential candidates over the years (2016 was the only election where the Democratic candidate did not get over 50% support since 1992), Biden’s strong support in the overall average, lower volatility, and higher level of committed voters, and higher level of support from base voters, we are currently putting Michigan in the Lean Biden category.

For Consideration

• Mass communication is likely to have very little effect.

• Younger voters are a key target for both campaigns

• Negative views on Trump are likely maxed out.

We will continue to keep an eye on the numbers and have an updated report out in about two weeks. In the meantime do not hesitate to reach out if you have any questions, and do not forget to RSVP for our Q1 Michigan webinar on March 19th.

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