Updates on The War in Gaza

TL; DR: Americans are paying less and less attention to the war in Gaza, but views on Israel’s actions have shifted regardless, with more Americans feeling that the Israeli government has gone too far in their response to Hamas’ October 7 attack. There are generational differences at play in how Americans view this issue; younger generations are driving a general decrease in justified reasoning for Israel’s actions and an increase in criticism towards Israel. Interestingly, Trump and Biden voters alike have decreased their support for Israel over the past several months. Meanwhile, thoughts on who’s to blame have also shifted since October, with Americans across the board increasingly seeing both Israel and Hamas as equally responsible for the current war, rather than just Hamas.

Since October 2023, we have been tracking how closely Americans are following the conflict between Israel and Hamas, as well as how they view the actions of the parties involved. Despite Americans saying they are paying less attention to the conflict in Gaza now, compared to a few months ago, their views on the actions of Israel, Hamas, and President Biden continue to shift.

Shortly after the October 7th terror attack, 31% of Americans reported paying very close attention to the situation and another 39% were paying somewhat close attention. However, Americans’ level of reported attention dropped dramatically by December 2023. Just 13% said they were paying very close attention and those paying somewhat close attention jumped up 9 points. Now, 17% report monitoring the situation very closely. Over the past five months, the number of Americans saying they are not following the conflict very closely has consistently increased.

Paying less attention to what’s happening in the Middle East right now is a pattern occurring for all Americans, regardless of generation. Since December, Gen Z has experienced the most dramatic drop: 38% now report they are paying very close or somewhat close attention, a 22-point drop from December. In comparison, a majority of Millennials, Boomers, Silent generation members, and half of Gen X report paying close attention according to the latest data. Silent generation Americans are the most likely to say they are still paying close attention to the conflict, but there was a 15-point drop among this cohort after holding steady from October to December. Millennials have seen a consistent 7 to 8-point drop in attention paid as the conflict has worn on.

When looking at viewing habits by 2020 vote history, fewer Biden and Trump voters report paying close attention to the situation than in December while third party voters report paying slightly more attention than in December. Americans who did not vote in the last presidential election are the least likely to be paying close attention to the situation. While there was only a four-point drop among Trump voters who were paying close attention from October to December, Biden voters saw a 15-point drop. However, since the end of last year, attention paid by Trump voters has dropped by 16 points, compared to just 5 points for Biden voters. Despite that first initial drop among Biden voters, this means they’re now reporting to be paying closer attention to the situation in the Middle East compared to Trump voters.

Back in October, Americans felt that Israel’s actions in Gaza were mostly reasonable following Hamas’ October 7th attack. However, Americans increasingly believe that Israel’s actions have gone too far; after believing a majority of Israel’s actions were reasonable back in October (54.1%), Americans now believe a majority of Israel’s actions have gone too far (51.7%).

Since the start of the conflict, Gen Z Americans have been most likely to say Israel’s actions have gone too far, holding about steady at a 60/40 split. Our latest data shows that this is still the case, and now Millennials and Gen X are also more likely to say that Israel’s actions have gone too far (vs. being reasonable). While Millennials’ views have held relatively steady since October, Gen X has continuously made small shifts towards saying Israel’s actions have gone too far. While there was a shift among Americans in the Greatest/Silent generations between October and December, there was only a small change in March. However, the largest shifts in attitudes regarding Israel’s actions have been among Boomers. In October, Boomers said an average of 73.1% of Israel’s actions have been reasonable. By December, that fell 8.7 points to 64.4%, and in March, Boomers said an average of 56.5% of Israel’s actions have been reasonable, another 7.9-point drop since December.

There has been a similar shift in overall views surrounding Israel’s justification for their actions. In October, 17% of Americans felt Israel was 100% justified in their response; now, that number stands at just 9%. Meanwhile, the number of Americans who feel Israel has had no justification has held steady since October at 11%. More Americans now say that there is a low level of justification for Israel’s actions; this number has increased by 7% since October.

Since December, Gen Z’s passion for believing what’s going on in Gaza is unjustified intensified, with the number of Gen Zers believing less than 20% of Israel’s actions are justified increasing by 5 percentage points. Millennials are also more likely to say that Israel’s actions have been unjustified, but their views are not as extreme; 23% of Millennials allocate just 0-20% for Israel’s justification of its actions, 8 points lower than Gen Z, meaning that Gen Zers are more likely than Millennials to feel that Israel’s actions are unjustified.

It's not just younger Americans who are beginning to feel this way; those in the Boomer and Gen X generations now feel that there is less justification for Israel’s actions as there was in December for what is going on in Gaza. As represented in the chart below, there has been a dramatic increase from December to March of Gen Xers and Boomers allocating points in the 21-49% range, meaning they feel Israel’s actions are less and less justified. Additionally, there has been a continuous drop among Gen Xers rating Israel’s actions above a 50% justification since October. Boomers saw a dramatic drop in the number allocating above a 50% justification from October to December, and the negative trend continued in March. Across all generations, Americans now view Israel’s actions as less justified than they were in December.

When it comes to differences by 2020 vote history, Trump voters are more likely to view Israel’s actions as justified compared to Biden voters, but both groups experienced a decrease in the number of those saying that Israel is justified. Indeed, there was a 5-point drop among Biden voters and an 8-point drop among Trump voters saying that there is a somewhat or very high level of justification for what’s happening in Gaza since December.

Americans are also souring on President Biden’s handling of the situation in the Middle East. In October, 40% of Americans gave Biden positive scores on handling the issue, but now just 27% rate his job on the conflict positively. Nearly half (48%) give Biden negative scores on the situation.

Americans are not only shifting their views on the justification of Israel’s actions, but they are also showing shifts in views on the cause of the situation. In December, Americans placed 65.3% of the blame for the cause of the situation on Hamas and just over a third (34.7%) on Israel. This changed in March, with Americans increasing their thoughts in Israel shouldering the blame by about 5 points.

While the average American blames Hamas for the current situation more than they blame the Israeli government, fewer Americans place a high level of blame on Hamas now compared to December. However, the same level of blame has not increased for the Israeli government, indicating that Americans increasingly see both sides as equally at fault for the current situation. In December, 28% of Americans placed the blame equally on Hamas and the Israeli government. By March, that has increased 4 points to 32% while the number placing a higher level of blame on the Israeli government has held steady at 19%.

Gen Z has shifted the most since December when it comes to choosing who’s to blame. Back in December, 2 in 5 Gen Zers (41%) put most of the blame on Hamas; now just 28% say the same, while the number of Gen Zers who place blame in the middle has increased (39% to 45%) as has the number who put most of the blame on the Israeli government (20% to 27%). Millennials and Gen Xers haven’t experienced as much change, with about one-third of both age cohorts placing blame somewhere in the middle, and more blame likely put on Hamas compared to the Israeli government (especially in the case of Gen Xers).

The older generations, on the other hand, clearly place a high level of blame on Hamas and very little blame on Israel. While there were only minor shifts among Boomers’ blame levels of Hamas, Greatest/Silent generation of Americans saw a 15-point increase in those holding Hamas and Israel equally responsible. Additionally, there was an 8-point drop among the Greatest/Silent generation saying Hamas was wholly responsible.

As this conflict continues to unfold – and the US government beginning to draw lines in the sand for sending aid to the Israeli government – it’s likely that opinions will continue to shift.