The 2024 election left many in our nation in shock, while others were cheering the results. Regardless of which side of the equation you were on the results made way for a significant shift in power and a new political chapter for our nation. Part 1 of our look at the data behind the election focused on the overarching results. Now, in Part 2, we delve deeper into the specific issues that influenced voters' decisions in the recent election.

Looking at the data in the six months leading up to the election, Trendency found that voters on the two sides of the aisle were motivated by specific, and divergent issues. Many voters made their decisions based on the well-being of the economy. A majority of Republicans along with a great number of Independent voters favored a presidential candidate based on who they believed was more capable of addressing inflation. On the other side of the equation, the protection of democracy played a huge role for a magnitude of Democrats. Other pressing issues voters took into account while making their decision included immigration, healthcare, crime, abortion, racism and discrimination, as well as civil and LGDBTQ+ rights. 

Both parties and their candidates arguably did a good job of getting messages to their base voters. Democrats were much more likely to point to protecting democracy and abortion rights as their big motivators, while Republican voters were more likely to emphasize immigration, the economy, and crime.  

Abortion was a big focus in the 2024 election, and overall it does seem to have motivated the bases of both parties, with a distinct advantage to Democrats and the Harris campaign. What is interesting in hindsight is that for non-voters who would have been likely to vote for Harris, abortion was viewed as a motivating factor; however, it clearly wasn’t enough to get these voters to turn out. 

The Issues

Before the 2024 election, Trendency asked voters to allocate how much of an impact issues of inflation and the economy, protecting democracy, crime, immigration, healthcare, abortion, racism and discrimination, and civil and LGBTQ+ rights would have on their vote. We returned to this question after the 2024 election. Post-election results show that while issues of inflation and the economy were still highly impactful for voters, protecting democracy was actually the most impactful issue among voters post-election (Figure 1). Abortion, crime, racism and discrimination, and civil and LGBTQ+ rights would also slightly outperform their predictions in post-election surveys.

As a reminder, we are not asking these questions in a binary fashion (or a pick one, or rank) instead we are asking respondents to allocate their responses on a scale for each allowing us to get a deeper understanding of how the issues are viewed and also place each issue in the context of the others. We are also asking the same people over time, so the movement from pre-election to post-election is not comparing a similar audience but specific individuals. 

For issues that tend to be more associated with Democratic messaging, motivation after the election tended to go up, especially protecting democracy, abortion, and civil/LGBTQ+ rights. While those more associated with Republican messaging either went down (inflation/economy) or stayed stagnant (immigration). Crime was the one issue that increased after the election, however only by an average of 2 points. 

Comparing how partisanship factored in, Republican voters felt they were most impacted by issues of inflation and the economy, immigration, and crime (Figure 2). Meanwhile, these were Democratic voters’ lowest priorities - they instead said they felt most impacted by issues of protecting democracy, abortion, and healthcare. Although not as strong, Democratic voters also felt impacted by racism and discrimination as well as civil and LGBTQ+ rights. The lowest-ranking issues for Republicans were abortion, racism and discrimination, and civil and LGBTQ+ rights. 

Exploring multiple voter groups, 2024 Trump voters by far were the group most impacted by issues of inflation, the economy, and immigration. 2024 Harris voters were the group most impacted by protecting democracy, abortion, healthcare, and civil and LGBTQ+ rights. This varied depending on voter demographics (Table 1). For instance, Black women were the groups most impacted by racism and discrimination. Latinos were the group most impacted by crime. Voters under 30 and college-educated voters felt impacted in the same way, whereas non-college-educated voters related more closely to the national average allocations.

Voters were asked how much their economic situation affected their financial concerns (Figure 3). Healthcare and prescription drugs were identified as the primary concern for voters, with 21.28% of participants ranking it as their most pressing issue. The second largest economic issue many are concerned about is housing cost (18.4%).

Returning to results along ideological lines and preferred candidates, the top three issues for Trump voters in 2024 were inflation/economy, immigration, and crime (Figure 4). The top three issues for Harris voters in 2024 were protecting democracy, abortion, and healthcare. The top three issues for voters who chose not to vote in 2024 were inflation/economy, abortion, and immigration. Overall, voters who chose not to vote felt less impacted by these issues than voters who did vote.

Looking at the distribution of opinions for their top three issues in 2024, the majority of Harris voters (53%) allocated 80% or more to protecting democracy as an issue that impacted how they voted, indicating it was their top issue (Figure 5). Less than 40% of Harris voters allocated 80% or more to issues of healthcare or abortion. Slightly less than a quarter of Harris voters allocated less than 20% to abortion as an impacting issue, and almost 30% allocated less than 20% to healthcare as an impactful issue. One in five (20%) Harris voters were not confident about the impact of protecting democracy on their vote, compared to the roughly 40% who were not sure about the impact of abortion and healthcare. 

In the distribution of opinion for the top three impacting issues for Trump voters in 2024, the majority allocated 80% or more to issues of inflation and the economy (54%) (Figure 6). Nearly half (46%) of Trump voters felt immigration strongly impacted the way they voted and 32% felt strongly impacted by crime. Roughly a quarter of Trump voters allocated less than 20% of an impact to the issue of crime, while the percentage of voters falling in the middle of the scale (20-79 points) mirrored Harris supporters.

In comparison, non-voters are the most unsure of how these issues impacted their decisions at the polls (or lack thereof) (FIgure 7). Nearly half (45%) of these voters allocated less than 20% to the impact abortion had on their choice not to vote, 41% allocated less than 20% to immigration, and 30% allocated less than 20% to issues of inflation and the economy. Over 25% of non-voters allocated 80% or more to the impact issues of inflation and the economy had on their choice not to vote.

The bottom line? Harris voters united under the desire to protect democracy. Trump voters united under issues of inflation and the economy. Registered voters who chose not to vote last year didn’t feel very impacted by any issues but did unite the most under issues of inflation and the economy. A large portion (slightly less than a quarter) of eligible voters who chose not to vote felt highly impacted by abortion.

How Abortion Motivated Voters in 2024

Looking solely at voters strongly motivated by abortion and reproductive rights issues in the 2024 election, 55% identified as Democrats, 20% identified as Republicans, and 24% identified as Independent voters. 58% are women and 42% are men.

Breaking it down by their choice at the top of the ticket, voters whose decisions last year were strongly motivated by abortion issues leaned towards Harris - and her support among this group was much stronger compared to this subsect of voters who ended up voting for Trump Among voters motivated by abortion who didn’t vote, support for Harris was significantly higher than support for Trump before Election Day (Figure 8). Despite differences in strength of support, these voters were confident in their candidate of choice; their support levels for each candidate remained consistent over time, showing that abortion-motivated voters had their minds made up on who they were voting for early on.

The majority of abortion-motivated voters who voted for Harris or didn’t cast ballots in last year’s elections identified as Democrats (Figure 9). Both 13% of voters who supported Harris and 20% of those who voted for Trump identified as Republicans. Among abortion-motivated voters who voted for Trump, 43%, less than the majority, identified as Republicans. Additionally, 26% of abortion-motivated voters who cast their ballot for Trump identified as Democrats.

2024 voters experienced a wide range of shifts in opinion that may have contributed to the large decrease in voter turnout for Harris compared to the increase in voter turnout for Trump. Issues of inflation and the economy and protecting democracy were the most impactful issues for voters this election, but voter opinion on specific candidates also played an important role in determining whether or not voters showed up and who they voted for. 

2024 Eligible Voters Who Chose Not to Vote

Among eligible voters who chose not to vote in the 2024 election, Trump was leading for a large percent of the race until the end of October, when support for Harris increased and support for Trump decreased (Figure 10). In early July, results initially showed a difference of 27.5% more of eligible voters who chose not to vote favoring Trump over Harris. Throughout the months leading up to November, a steady shift in support was noticed among this demographic. There was a 5% difference by November showing that candidate Harris became slightly more favorable than Trump. Despite this, average support for both candidates remained below 40 throughout.

The majority of eligible voters who chose not to vote allocated less than 20% to the chance that they would vote for either candidate, although more said they wouldn’t support Trump in comparison to Harris (Figure 11). 

While it is often nearly impossible to fully pinpoint an exact reason why a candidate wins or loses an election, the data clearly shows how base voters for the two parties see a very different world in front of them and the parties are talking mostly past each other versus at the voters. If this pattern continues, which seems likely, the ramifications on campaigns and messaging will be immense, mirroring the shifts we have seen in how information is being decimated, and where people are receiving this information.