Can Biden Still Win?

Since the Presidential debate on June 27th, President Joe Biden’s campaign has been dealing with the fallout by (so far) calling it a bad night and staying resolute in the President’s plan to remain in the race. Regardless of what pundits and other elected officials would like Biden to do, the most important audience is the voters open to supporting the President and what they will likely do in November. As the Trendency data showed us last week, there was very little positive sentiment in the data for President Biden; overall, Biden’s average support dropped three (3) points over the four days following the debate, while Trump’s support increased by roughly two (2) points.

Arguably, to have a data-based argument for staying in the race, the Biden campaign will need to stop the downward trend in his support and then show that recovery is possible. So far, the campaign seems to have somewhat achieved the first part. On July 1st, Biden’s average support was at 40% compared to Trump’s average of 41%. Six days later, Biden is still at 40% while Trump has dropped nearly a point to also put his average support at 40% (Trump’s support is at just under 40.5% while Biden is a little under 40%, giving Trump the overall lead).

The initial drop in support for Biden was mostly due to Democrats lowering their likelihood of supporting the current President’s re-election, along with a slight drop among Independent voters. Republicans were unlikely to deviate from supporting former President Trump and that dynamic has not shifted since Trump was convicted on 34 counts at the end of May. Among Democrats, the drop in support for Biden has stabilized over the past week and currently stands at an average level of support of 73%, six (6) points lower than the average support Trump currently has among Republican voters.

Among Independent voters, the dynamics were not as strongly affected by the debate performances of the two candidates. Trump’s support went up slightly, while Biden’s dropped giving Trump a roughly five (5) point advantage. Over the last week, support for both candidates has held nearly the same among these voters, with Trump ticking up just 0.1 points and Biden moving in the opposite direction by the same amount.

Among likely voters across the United States, the overall patterns have been similar; however, we are showing Biden holding on to a very slim lead. On July 1st, Biden had a two (2) point lead which has now shrunk to roughly a point separating the two candidates.

Looking at the voters who have been part of our national panel since before the 2020 election (we did a full rundown of these voters before the debate), Biden experienced a massive loss of support right after the debate, followed by a rebound going into the July 4th holiday. Before the debate, Biden’s average support was just over 85% among the voters who supported him in 2020. After the debate, that support dropped a little over six (6) points to 79% and then went back up by nearly four (4) points putting him over the next three days, leaving him with just under 83% average support.

Similar to Republicans overall, Trump’s support among his 2020 voters increased after the debate and has leveled off at just a touch over 88% since July 2nd.

Swing States: Arizona and Michigan Voters After the Debate

Over the past week and a half since the debate, Trump’s support among Arizona voters decreased by nearly 1.5 points before recovering slightly, leaving him in a similar position to where he was before the debate (45% average support). In contrast, support for Biden decreased by about 3 points, and only recently has it shown signs of stabilizing.

Among likely voters in Arizona, Trump maintained a 4-point advantage over Biden leading up to the debate, with this advantage growing by about 2-3 points since June 27th.

In Michigan, Biden held an advantage over Trump leading up to the debate. However, after the debate, support flipped in Trump’s favor, as support for Trump rose by two (2) points to 45 and support for Biden fell by five (5) points to 42.

While Biden has been more popular among likely voters in Michigan, this may not be the case for much longer. Before the debate, Biden enjoyed an approximate 8-point lead over Trump, but that has since narrowed as well. In the past week, support for Biden fell another two (2) points and he is currently just two (2) points ahead of Trump.

Conclusion

Overall, the numbers have more or less stabilized nationally for Biden, but winning Arizona is a long shot at best and Michigan is showing signs of slipping away. If the Biden campaign can’t start moving the numbers in a positive direction over the next week or so, the expectation would be for the calls for the President to step aside to become louder.