During both the presidential and vice presidential debates, the topic of what happens after the 2024 election was discussed but not necessarily answered. New laws have been passed in an attempt to stave off another January 6^th, but Trump has yet to admit defeat or walk away from the claims that there was rampant voter fraud in 2020, regardless of the facts. There has also yet to be a definitive answer as to whether or not he will accept the results of the upcoming November election. 

With this in mind, this past January we wanted to see how the American public viewed the likelihood of violence during the post-election period. At that time, our assumption was that there would be a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. A lot has happened since then, so we repeated the questions last month to see if views have shifted. Nine months later, and with a change at the top of the ticket on the Democratic side, it is safe to say that concerns have been elevated. 

A quick look back

In both January and September, we asked Americans about five specific scenarios when it came to the outcome of the November election: whether they thought there would be no violence at all, that there would be violence but at a less serious level than January 6^th, violence similar to January 6^th, or something worse than January 6^th. Overall, more than 6 in 10 Americans in January said that they were expecting violence of some level after the election regardless of the specific outcome. When asked about the different scenarios for the outcome of the election, 41% of voters felt that there would be another January 6^th or worse if Biden won in a similar fashion to the 2020 election (where Biden wins both the popular vote and the Electoral College by a comfortable margin). That number increased slightly if Biden only won the Electoral College by one state (42%), while 38% felt that there would be a repeat of January 6^th if Trump lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College by one state.

Now that Harris is the Democratic nominee and we’ve seen nine additional months of campaigning for Trump, we thought it would be interesting to see where Americans currently stand in their post-election expectations.

Current State of Concern

Overall, 9 in 10 Americans (91%) feel there is a chance for violence after this November’s election. The concern over violence is higher if Harris wins, with 64% believing it will happen regardless of how close the outcome of the Electoral College is, while just 19% of Americans believe there won’t be violence if Harris wins. Just over 7 in 10 Harris supporters (71%) feel there will definitely be violence if their candidate wins, while 57% of Trump supporters agree. 

The numbers are lower if Trump wins, with 44% of Americans expecting violence compared to just 22% who feel there will not be violence regardless of how he wins. A majority of Trump supporters (54%) believe that there will be violence if their preferred candidate wins, while 18% believe there will not be any violence. One-third of Harris supporters (33%) believe there will be violence if Trump wins, while 26% feel that there will not be any violence regardless of the fashion that Trump wins.

While the overall numbers are telling, the different scenarios paint a more detailed picture.

Scenario 1: Margins similar to 2020, with the Democratic candidate winning.

Rating: High expectation of violence

Change from January to September: Little to no change

In January, just 28% of Americans felt that the results would be accepted and there would be no violence if President Biden won re-election in a similar fashion to 2020. In September, the numbers are mostly the same with Harris at the top of the ticket.

When we look at the numbers back in January based on who voters supported in 2020, just 24% of Biden voters felt that there would be no violent acts by Trump supporters, while 34% felt that there would be a lower level of violence, and a plurality (42%) were expecting something similar or worse than January 6^th. Trump supporters were more divided, with 36% expecting no violence, just under a third expecting something less than January 6^th, and a third expecting something similar or worse than what we experienced in 2021. Non-Biden/Trump voters were less likely to say there would be no violence but were closely divided on the level of violence to expect.

Fast forward to September and we find that Trump supporters hold nearly the same opinions as they did in January, while 2020 Biden voters and those who did not vote in 2020 or voted third party have become more concerned about the level of violence post-election, with 42% of 2020 Biden voters expecting January 6^th or worse (a three-point increase), as well as 48% of “other” voters (a 12-point increase). 

Scenario 2: Closely contested Electoral College with the Democratic Candidate winning.

Rating: High expectation of violence

Change from January to September: Little to no change

Just like Scenario 1, there has not been much change in the expectation of violence when it comes to Scenario 2, where the Democratic nominee wins the popular vote by a comfortable margin, but only wins the Electoral College by one state. The overall expectation of violence is three points higher under this closer outcome, coupled with a two-point decrease in the expectation of no violence.

In this more contentious electoral scenario, the perceptions of each voting base demonstrate intriguing and contrasting trends. While Trump supporters have not changed their opinion much since January, supporters of the Democratic nominee have become more concerned about potential levels of violence. 

In January, nearly half of 2020 Biden voters (46%) expected something similar to January 6^th or worse. Currently, that number stands at 50%. Trump voters, on the other hand, went from 30% expecting this level of violence to 31% now that Harris is at the top of the ticket. The voters who moved the most are those who voted 3^rd party or did not vote in 2020. Among this cohort, 41% were expecting a January 6^th level of violence or worse if this scenario were to play out in November, while currently, that number stands at 64% (a 23% increase).

Scenario 3: Trump loses the popular vote but wins the Electoral College by a slim margin.

Rating: High expectation of violence

Change from January to September: Slight movement towards no violence

Thoughts on Scenario 3, where Trump loses the popular vote but wins the Electoral College by one state, have not changed much since January. At the beginning of the year, 38% of voters were expecting something similar to January 6^th or worse, one-third were expecting some violence but at a lower level, and 29% were expecting no violence. Fast forward nine months, and the percentage expecting the worst case decreased by three points, while those expecting no violence increased by four points. 

When we look at the numbers through a partisan lens, we see a distinct shift in opinion. Among supporters of the Democratic nominee, more than 40% expect some violence, or even more violence than January 6th, from Trump supporters if the Democrat wins. If Trump wins, 25% of Democrats expect violence from supporters of their party. Among Republicans, about one-third expect violence from Trump supporters if their candidate loses, while nearly 6 in 10 were expecting violence from Democrats if Trump wins in January.

This Fall, the data shows slightly less concern about violence if Trump wins the Electoral College. Currently, 46% of Democratic voters do not expect any violence in this scenario, a nine-point increase from January, while 32% expect some violence, and 23% expect violent acts among Harris supporters. Trump supporters have a very different view, with just 26% expecting a peaceful transfer of power in this scenario, while a plurality, 41%, are expecting a reciprocal or more severe reaction than what we saw nearly four years ago. Nonetheless, this still represents an 8-point decrease from earlier in the year.

Those who voted for a 3^rd party candidate or did not vote in 2020 hold closer views to Trump supporters in that 38% believe that Harris supporters will stage similar levels of violence, or worse than Trump supporters did in 2021. At the same time, the vast majority of the movement from January to September among this cohort was from expecting some violence to expecting none (19-point shift).

Scenario 4: Trump loses the popular vote but wins the Electoral College by a comfortable margin. 

Rating: Moderate expectation of violence

Change from January to September: Strong movement towards no violence

In Scenario 4, where Trump loses the popular vote but wins the Electoral College by a comfortable margin, voter perception has greatly shifted. In January, 29% of Americans expected a peaceful transfer of power. Nine months later, 45% of Americans think this would be the case. Most of this 16-point shift came from people feeling there would be some violence to none. At the same time, those expecting violence similar to or worse than January 6^th dropped from 36% to 30%.

In January, voters who supported Biden in 2020 were evenly split on this scenario, with 37% feeling there would be no violence, 36% feeling there would be some, and 27% feeling it would be similar to January 2021 or worse. Trump voters were more concerned, with 41% expecting violence from Biden supporters at, or above the level of January 6^th.  

Last month, the numbers shifted considerably among Democratic supporters with 62% feeling it would be a peaceful transfer of power and 16% feeling there would be a repeat of four years ago. Trump supporters also moved to a more optimistic view of this scenario, with 35% expecting a peaceful transfer of power (up 11 points), while 39% are expecting the worst (a 2-point drop). At the same time, those who did not vote or voted for a 3^rd party candidate in 2020 have become slightly more pessimistic about this scenario with a four-point increase in those expecting high levels of violence. At the same time, they shifted 29 points towards a peaceful transfer from expecting lower levels of violence. 

Scenario 5: Large margin for Trump as he wins both the popular vote and the Electoral College by a comfortable margin.

Rating: Very high expectation of violence

Change from January to September: Movement towards more violence

Interestingly, this is the only scenario where we see a drop in voters who believe there will be acceptance and no violence. In January, 40% of Americans felt that this scenario would lead to a peaceful transfer of power. Nine months later, this number has dropped to 35%. The exact same percentage of Americans currently believe that there will be similar or worse violence to January 6^th (a 2-point increase), while 31% feel that there will be lower levels of violence (a 4-point increase). 

In January, a majority of Biden supporters felt that this would lead to a peaceful transfer of power (53%), while 21% expected the worst. Currently, the expectation of a January 6^th level of violence or worse has held steady, while the percent expecting a peaceful transfer of power has dropped six points.

Trump voters also increasingly believe in a violent outcome should this scenario come to pass. Currently, 27% of Trump supporters feel that there will be a peaceful transfer of power (a 7-point drop), while 44% expect a repeat of January 6^th or worse (Figure 16). This represents a six-point increase over the last nine months. 

Non-2020 voters and those who voted 3^rd Party moved in a more polarized fashion. In January, just 7% felt that there would be a peaceful transfer of power while 42% hold that view now. On the other hand, 46% currently feel there will be a similar or worse reaction than what we saw on January 6^th. While this is down four points from the beginning of the year, there has been a decided shift from those who feel the situation will be the same as January 6^th to those who feel it will be worse. 

In sum, none of these numbers paint a great picture for the period between November 5th, 2024 and January 20th, 2025. The vast majority of Harris supporters are expecting violence if she wins, and Trump supporters predict a violent outcome nearly equally regardless of which candidate ultimately wins. While the number of people involved in post-election violence was very small compared to the population at large, it certainly says a lot about our country and how the events from four years ago, and the inability of one party to accept the results of the election, are affecting the psyche of our nation leading up to November.