A Summer for the Ages

Now that both major parties have wrapped up their conventions and Labor Day weekend is coming up, we are officially headed into the home stretch of the 2024 election. It has certainly been an interesting summer, to say the least, and we are exiting the season in a very different place than how we entered. Since Memorial Day, we have witnessed a former President (and current candidate) being found guilty on 34 felony charges, a debate performance that was shockingly bad by the current President, an assassination attempt on the former, a change at the top of the ticket for Democrats, and a somewhat prominent 3^rd party candidate dropping out of the race. Plus, we had the usual events such as VP picks, the conventions, and the summer Olympics to boot. While we all could use a little rest at this point, early voting begins on September 20^th for some states (Minnesota and Virginia), as the saying goes: there is no rest for the weary.

We have been tracking the views of the American voters for months now and if we just showed you the results in mid-May and this week it would not look strange at all. The Democratic candidate had a reasonable lead on average in May and both parties have grown their support since.

However, life is rarely a straight line from point A to point B. With daily tracking what really happened between these two points is:

Since becoming the presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party, current Vice President Kamala Harris has been steadily climbing her average support score and is now running higher than Biden was back in May. After a week of the Democratic Party’s best surrogates delivering energizing speeches to their base, support for Harris ticked up by an average of one (1) point to 45. This is not a big change, but it certainly has helped sustain her growth pattern since the end of July. 

Except for the last week of July when Biden dropped out, Trump’s support has fluctuated within a small range (40 to 41) of average support. Given these numbers and his historical support, it is tough to imagine that he would drop below this threshold, and the question becomes, how much higher can he move his numbers? To try to answer this question, we look at the data in a few different ways. First is the longer-term trend (see chart above), and the second is looking at just the responses that were given in the last 30 days. This view uses no information from the past and is a good way to understand how volatile the short term is when it comes to people’s opinions.

In this view of the data, we see that both candidates are currently working within a small band of support, with Harris currently enjoying the advantage of a higher level.

The third way we look at the data is the distribution of opinions. In most of our questions, we are not asking our community members whether they are going to do A or B; instead, we are the chances of doing A and B. In a political context, this means we are not asking if you are going to support Harris or Trump, but rather what are the chances you will vote for Harris and what are the chances you will vote for Trump? The results in the charts above are the average score given across the panel of respondents. The distribution gives us an understanding of how much room for change is there. Currently, over half of voters nationally (53%) have almost no interest in voting for Trump, allocating between 0 and 19 points on our 100-point scale. Slightly fewer voters, 48%, feel a similar degree of negativity toward Harris. On the other hand, 4% more voters are highly committed to voting for Harris nationally than for Trump (80% chance or higher): 39% of voters intend to cast their vote for Kamala Harris, and 35% intend to vote for Donald Trump in the upcoming election.

Breaking these numbers into demographic averages, we find that voters of all ages, as well as voters who say they’re highly likely to turn out this November, tend to support Vice President Harris over former President Trump. The three demographics that support Trump more than Harris include men, Independents, and Republicans.

While these numbers look optimistic for Democrats looking to stay in the White House, it’s impossible to ignore the elephant (not the GOP elephant) in the room: the Electoral College.

Michigan

In Michigan, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are running neck-and-neck. After a volatile few weeks, Harris surpassed Trump in the crucial swing state. But now, in the week following the convention, Trump and Harris are tied at 45 points each.

The distribution of opinion confirms how close this race is in Michigan: 42% of voters are highly committed to voting for Harris, and another 42% are highly committed to voting for Trump. Something to watch out for in the coming weeks is that 6% of voters allocate 40 to 79 points out of 100 on the sliding scale for Trump while just 2% of voters allocate the same to Harris. In traditional “pick a candidate” polls, respondents may be forced to choose a candidate they ultimately won’t vote for; this would be misleading. The benefit to seeing these numbers on a sliding scale from longitudinal data, however, is that it shows that 4% more voters are feeling indecisive about voting for Trump than about voting for Harris. Kamala Harris could still pick up these voters, but it is more likely that they will vote for Trump, not vote, or vote for a third party.

Arizona

Down in Arizona, the numbers look slightly better for Harris. In the Grand Canyon state, she is up by 4 points against Trump. Not only is this an improvement from her standing when Harris first entered the race, but it is also at a better standpoint than Biden’s against Trump three months ago in Arizona.

In addition to higher average support, 2% more voters are highly committed to Harris than to Trump in Arizona, and 3% more voters lean toward supporting Harris over Trump – meaning they allocate between 40 and 79 points out of 100. Harris’s entrance into the race has led to her sustained lead in Arizona over the past month.

Nevada

As for Nevada, Trendency panelists allocate nearly identical average allocations to both candidates: Trump receives 40 points out of 100 and Harris receives 41 points out of 100.

The distribution of opinion shows that voters in Nevada are more undecided than in other swing states. Harris sees 17% of voters considering voting for her, while 13% of voters are leaning toward voting for Trump. There is a lot of room to increase support for either candidate in this crucial swing state.

Florida

While Florida is not necessarily considered by most to be a battleground state, Trendency’s data suggests that Florida might warrant another look. Harris is up by 2 points there against Trump, increasing in popularity over the past few weeks.

The distribution of opinion also shows a slight advantage for Harris at the strongly committed voters. Currently, 41% of Floridians are highly committed to voting for Trump, and 43% are highly committed to voting for Harris. While these numbers do not match up with many Florida polls, the improved numbers for Harris in Florida may have something to do with her recent rise in popularity among Latinx/Hispanic women.

Ohio

Similarly, Trendency numbers challenge the results of traditional polling in Ohio as well, as Harris is winning against Trump among voters in our Ohio panel, too. Harris was initially beating Trump when she announced her campaign, but now supporters give her an average of 47 points out of 100 compared to Trump’s 42 points. While Trendency’s data may be an outlier, these same panelists in Ohio who now support Harris more than Trump are the same ones who, just a little over a month ago, preferred Trump over Biden.

California

While it is certainly not a swing state and the outcome is not in question, we always find it interesting to look at a base state for comparison’s sake. In California, the results are as you would expect. Harris was ahead from the start of her untraditional campaign announcement, and she remains ahead of Trump in the Golden State. As it currently stands, 48% of voters in California are highly committed to voting for a Harris White House and 31% of Californians passionately want to see Trump win again. On the opposite end of the scale, 62% of California voters say there is little to no chance that they would vote for Trump, while 42% feel the same way about Harris.

Overall, while there is a short sprint to November 5^th, there is still plenty of time for dynamics to change. From the upcoming debates for both the Presidential and Vice Presidential nominees to the famed “October Surprise,” it feels nearly certain that some bigger news story will happen before the final day of voting. Currently, Harris has an advantage nationally, and in some key swing states. The numbers in Ohio and Florida are absolutely worth keeping an eye on, as are states such as Michigan and Nevada. Both candidates have some unconventional paths to 270, and it will certainly be interesting to watch this all unfold.